PETER ELTSOV AND KLAUS LARRES
The Russian government tells the world that the Russian-speaking people of Ukraine need to be protected. The de facto annexation of Crimea has occurred. A logical and necessary step from Putin's point of view. After all, more than 58 percent of the Crimean population is Russian. Are eastern Ukraine and northern Kazakhstan, with their large percentage of Russians, next? This is, on the whole, unlikely. However, it can no longer be excluded, in particular regarding eastern Ukraine.
In every country, all truly important foreign-policy choices are, at their core, ultimately about domestic politics. And it's not just about creating a "rally 'round the flag" effect, or distracting from pesky domestic issues, although these are definitely relevant considerations for decision-makers. The right foreign-policy move at the right time can boost a leader's ratings and the regime's popularity. This is doubly true for authoritarian regimes that lack democratic legitimacy, and it is true for Russia today.
The situation in Ukraine has increased the internal tension in the CIS and will complicate the relations between its member countries, Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin told Rosbalt (www.rosbalt.ru). He said that even today, such CIS member countries as Belarus and Kazakhstan, which have achieved the closest integration with Russia within the Customs Union, participate in these organizations only because "it is economically profitable for them" and "only to the extent that is profitable for them".
As illustrated by recent events in Ukraine, the post-Soviet space is still undergoing significant economic and political transformations. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the world welcomed 15 new sovereign states. Each of them chose a different path, some of which led to democracy and others that went astray.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis is having a profoundly unsettling effect on authoritarian-minded governments in Central Asia. On the one hand, they are keen to keep the forces unleashed by the Euromaidan movement at bay; on the other, they appear unnerved by the Kremlin's power play.
Given its proximity to Russia and Ukraine, Poland could run several risks and find some opportunities related to the on-going standoff in Crimea. On Monday, Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) fell the most on record, with investors concerned for its pipeline route via Ukraine and lower-than expected earnings.
President Nazarbayev has turned Kazakhstan into a Central Asian powerhouse. He is 73, and shows no sign of giving up the reins. But there are riches at stake, and people waiting in the wings. Kazakhstan has won kudos from international investors, for having successfully exploited its oil and gas reserves, ensuring GDP growth of 5% a year and annual GDP of over £120 billion, with a population of less than 17 million; and a landmass covering an area greater than continental Europe. The country is bidding to join the world's top 20 economies by 2050. The building of a modern capital city, Astana, in 1997, at very considerable expense, is another facet to this modernisation.
Ukraine is the size of Texas, but for the last three months its burgeoning protest movement has largely crowded into the space of 10 city blocks. The name for the movement itself, Euromaidan, is a neologism fusing the prefix euro, a nod to the opposition's desire to move closer to the EU and away from Russia, with the Ukrainian (and originally Persian and Arabic) word maidan, or public square
