THE game seemed to be set. Kazakhstan's political machine was running in overdrive, and since late December viewers of state television had been bombarded with sound bites from well-known and obscure citizens gushing about the wisdom of holding a national referendum to extend until 2020 the term of the long-serving and deserving president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. Over 5m enthusiastic signatures in favour of the referendum, representing more than half the electorate, were collected in just a few weeks.
And then everything was turned upside down when the Constitutional Council, a nominally independent body, ruled on January 31st that a referendum would be unconstitutional. Mr Nazarbayev himself had spoken out against one, but had been overruled by his one-party parliament. Now he said he would hold early presidential elections instead, cutting short his term in office by almost two years. Without missing a beat, the state media now effuses over the even greater wisdom of going ahead with an election, set for April 3rd.
This political zigzagging has been unusual even by Kazakh standards. Civic groups call it a travesty. With registration for presidential candidates closing on February 20th, little time remains for a marginalised opposition to get organised. One presidential hopeful has already failed to pass the mandatory and rather rigorous Kazakh language test. Victory is virtually assured for the 70-year-old Mr Nazarbayev, who remains popular in this oil-rich country despite shortcomings over freedom of expression and human rights.
Protest and uprisings in the Arab world also probably contributed to the zigzag. Like Arab despots, Mr Nazarbayev, leader since 1989, is perennial. Corruption and rising food prices unsettle Kazakhstanis. Though a popular uprising seems implausible, it would have been quite anachronistic to hand Mr Nazarbayev a third decade in power while people in Arab countries, not far to the west, are clamouring for change.
One unanswered question remains: who comes after Mr Nazarbayev? In the eyes of many Kazakhstanis, the president's chief shortcoming is failing to lay out plans for succession. The approaching election may only postpone further the time when the great man thinks to pronounce on a world without him.
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