The jubilant scenes on Cairo's Tahrir Square that greeted the fall of Hosni Mubarak have been likened to those that accompanied the toppling of communist regimes across eastern Europe in 1989. But in many states inside the former Soviet Union democracy never fully took root. So, could the wildfires of Tunisia and Egypt spread to them?
Some are already making bold forecasts. Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland's foreign minister, this month warned Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarus president who crushed opposition protests in December: "Sooner or later you will be forced to flee, chased by your own people".
Nursultan Nazarbayev, authoritarian president of Kazakhstan in former Soviet central Asia, performed a pre-emptive political U-turn. He scrapped a planned referendum that could have kept him in power until 2020, bypassing two elections, and instead called a snap presidential poll for April.
In nearby Tajikistan tensions stirred last week as an Islamist opposition group censured the government of Imomali Rahmon. It complained of "authoritarian state leadership, corruption, [and] the trampling of religious and political rights" after a mysterious attack on a senior party activist.
The speed and unexpectedness with which events developed in Tunisia and Egypt make it foolish to bet against the "Arab wave" sweeping into the ex-Soviet space.
Yet there are reasons for scepticism that citizens in former Soviet states will be taking to the streets soon as part of another round of the "coloured" revolutions that they witnessed between 2003 and 2005.
First, the "coloured" revolutions left a mixed legacy. Ukraine's and Kyrgyzstan's were in effect reversed, although after a second uprising last yearKyrgyzstan is now experimenting with a parliamentary democracy. The leader of Georgia's 2003 Rose Revolution, President Mikheil Saakashvili, has won plaudits for reforms but opponents accuse him of heavy-handed methods.
Second, ex-Soviet authoritarians are often popular. Like Russia's Vladimir Putin, Mr Lukashenko and Mr Nazarbayev probably enjoy majority support – though helped by pliant media and security services that keep the opposition weak and divided.
Many Belarusians like the stability, low unemployment, and reasonable wages and pensions of Mr Lukashenko's quasi-Soviet system. But he can deliver these only thanks to huge subsidies from Russia, which provides cheap energy and a market for Belarusian goods. Mr Lukashenko's longevity may depend above all on Moscow's continued largesse.
In oil-rich Kazakhstan, Mr Nazarbayev has used a relatively enlightened authoritarianism to foster a sense of nationhood where little existed before, and conduct market reforms that have pulled in $150bn of foreign investment.
Yet Egypt has shown the danger comes when the time to hand over power approaches – especially for those tempted by a dynastic succession.
The strongest parallels are probably in Muslim central Asia, where some ageing leaders face fast-growing youth populations with increasing access to satellite television and Twitter.
At 70, Mr Nazarbayev is already grappling with succession issues. The recent referendum initiative appeared designed to allow time to organise an orderly handover, perhaps to one of his daughters. By instead springing a surprise election he is certain to win, Mr Nazarbayev still creates a breathing space – while preserving an image of democracy.
In Uzbekistan, one of the world's nastier autocracies under 73-year-old President Islam Karimov, memories of a 2005 clampdown on an uprising in the eastern city of Andijan, where hundreds died, may deter protests.
Recollections of the 1992-97 civil war may have a similar effect in Tajikistan, where Mr Rahmon is, moreover, a relatively sprightly 58.
And as for Russia itself Mr Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev still have high approval ratings. Yet sharp increases in pensions and social spending mean the state budget now requires oil prices of $100 a barrel to balance. The ruling "tandem" need to deliver higher growth than last year's 4 per cent to fund further rises in living standards.
The political leaders and heads of state businesses who together form "Kremlin Inc" seem reluctant to damage a comfortable status quo. Tahrir Square may persuade them to strengthen the rule of law and modernise Russia's economy.
Financial Times FT.com
