The Russia-Ukraine crisis is having a profoundly unsettling effect on authoritarian-minded governments in Central Asia. On the one hand, they are keen to keep the forces unleashed by the Euromaidan movement at bay; on the other, they appear unnerved by the Kremlin's power play.
Two Kazakh nationals have made a renewed police challenge, to ask the Maltese law courts to investigate their accusations of torture against Kazakh exile Rakhat Aliyev, who resides in Malta. Despite repeated requests, the police have so far refused to investigate complaints by former bodyguards Satzhev Ibraev and Pyotr Afanasenko. The two men claim they were tortured on order of Aliyev in 2001, and personally beaten by him, to extract a false confession that their boss, former prime minister Akezhan Kazageldin, was plotting a coup against Aliyev's father-in-law, Kazakh dictator Nursultan Nazarbayev.
Given its proximity to Russia and Ukraine, Poland could run several risks and find some opportunities related to the on-going standoff in Crimea. On Monday, Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) fell the most on record, with investors concerned for its pipeline route via Ukraine and lower-than expected earnings.
Kyrgyzstan was once known for its Tulip Revolution, a name the followed the trend of color-coded revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine. The ouster of the corrupt regime of President Askar Akayev in 2005 gave those Kyrgyz aspiring for a better future cause for hope, but expectations were quickly dampened. Akayev's successor Kurmanbek Bakiyev suffered the same fate, with his removal from office in 2010.
President Nazarbayev has turned Kazakhstan into a Central Asian powerhouse. He is 73, and shows no sign of giving up the reins. But there are riches at stake, and people waiting in the wings. Kazakhstan has won kudos from international investors, for having successfully exploited its oil and gas reserves, ensuring GDP growth of 5% a year and annual GDP of over £120 billion, with a population of less than 17 million; and a landmass covering an area greater than continental Europe. The country is bidding to join the world's top 20 economies by 2050. The building of a modern capital city, Astana, in 1997, at very considerable expense, is another facet to this modernisation.
Ukraine is the size of Texas, but for the last three months its burgeoning protest movement has largely crowded into the space of 10 city blocks. The name for the movement itself, Euromaidan, is a neologism fusing the prefix euro, a nod to the opposition's desire to move closer to the EU and away from Russia, with the Ukrainian (and originally Persian and Arabic) word maidan, or public square
Caught in an emerging market storm, some resource-rich states may keep more windfall income in liquid assets, ready to aid their economies, rather than locked up in strategic investment for future generations.
